Jared Diamond: UCLA Dept. of Geography

Some societies have suffered environmental collapses in the past (Easter Island, Angkor Wat, Anasazi, Classic Maya…), while others have remained intact for thousands of years (Japan, Northwest Europe, Java, Tikopia…). Some countries are close to collapse today, while others are not. What makes some societies more fragile than others? Authors variously seek either geographic or cultural explanations. Barry Rolett’s and my recent re-analysis of Easter Island shows the importance of both types of explanations. Analysis of a data-base of 80 Pacific islands whose societies had widely differing outcomes reveals nine geographic variables predisposing towards deforestation. Easter was especially fragile on almost all nine counts. But there were also four cultural factors that contributed. In short, collapses aren’t accidents.