Dr. Tom Kraft
Dept. of Anthropology, University of Utah
https://thomaskraft.weebly.com/
Title: Modeling the dynamics of infectious disease transmission in a small-scale subsistence population
Abstract:
Infectious disease dynamics are governed by patterns of contact that vary by geography, social organization, mobility, network structure, and cultural factors. Based on speculation about these parameters in contemporary subsistence populations, voluntary collective isolation (VCI) has been proposed to mitigate the impact of global disease transmission into relatively isolated, largely self-sufficient, small-scale indigenous groups, most recently with respect to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. To assess the vulnerability of small-scale populations to epidemics and the viability of VCI and other interventions, I simulated disease transmission among Amazonian forager-horticulturalists (Tsimane) using a stochastic network metapopulation model parameterized with a wealth of high-resolution data on social behavior, mobility, and population structure. Findings indicate that relative isolation and Tsimane social organization offer little protection from disease introduction and widespread transmission, even in the most remote communities, and that VCI is unlikely to be effective under contemporary socioeconomic conditions. The occurrence of a local SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in this region in mid-2020 afforded an opportunity to test this model; comparison of model results to empirical outcomes measured using serological assays shows good model fit amidst very high rates of transmission. These results demonstrate the applied utility of anthropological data, and suggest that VCI alone is unlikely to be a viable intervention strategy. Pandemic policies should instead aim to protect small-scale communities by delivering distributed health care resources across remote areas.
Zoom: https://ucla.zoom.us/j/92826436236?pwd=SytQNTNPSWdwaDNlTm05d2srdXNHUT09
Meeting ID: 928 2643 6236
Passcode: BEC